Every few weeks a new headline says that homeowners have stopped using Google and now ask ChatGPT who to call. Every few weeks another says it's all hype. For a contractor deciding where to spend limited time, both are unhelpful.
This guide sets out what the surveys and studies actually measured, which numbers to treat with caution, and what a sensible plan looks like when nobody knows exactly how this will play out. The short version: AI is a growing way to find local businesses and not yet the main one for most trades, and the work you'd do for AI mostly helps you everywhere else too.
What the better-sourced numbers say
Consumers in general (BrightLocal, 2026). In a survey of 1,002 US adults, 45% said they use ChatGPT or other generative AI tools for local business recommendations, up from 6% in 2025. 40% trust AI platforms for business recommendations and 32% don't. This covers all kinds of local businesses and any level of use, so treat it as an upper bound for trades (BrightLocal).
Roofing customers (Roofing Contractor, 2026). In a nationwide homeowner survey (sample size not stated, average age 58):
- 74% follow a recommendation from a neighbor, friend or family member.
- 62% would contact a roofer they've used before.
- Half use internet search engines.
- 62% say online reviews are very or extremely important.
The same article says that, for the first time, the survey asked contractors about AI search services, and 11% of contractors said they use them (Roofing Contractor). That number is about contractors' marketing, not homeowners' behavior.
How rarely AI names a given business (SOCi, 2026). A study of 350,000+ locations found ChatGPT recommended about 1.2% of them, Perplexity 7.4% and Gemini 11%, compared with 35.9% appearing in Google's local 3-pack (SOCi, via NatLawReview). Those are mostly multi-location brands, and SOCi sells reputation software, but the direction is clear: AI names far fewer businesses than Google lists.
An agency case study. One Charlotte remodeler's seven-month data showed ChatGPT sent 14 of 727 referral sessions, about 2% (BuilderFunnel). It is one company, written by an agency, so it's a data point, not a rule.
Numbers to be careful with
- "22% of homeowners go to ChatGPT first." This figure is attributed to a "2026 Scorpion national study" in articles we found, but we couldn't find a sample size or method. We don't use it.
- "29% of homeowners already use ChatGPT for HVAC and plumbing." From a vendor blog. Another post by the same vendor says there's no published primary measurement of home-services AI use.
- Anything quoting AI-sourced leads without saying how they were counted. Customers often use AI, then call from a Google or Maps listing. That call looks like Google in your records.
Several vendors who sell AI-visibility services publish these figures. We sell a scan, so we have an interest too; that is why we're showing you our sources and uncertainty.
What our own data says
In our November 2026 study of 390 Texas markets (2,238 ChatGPT answers), we saw that:
- ChatGPT usually has a favorite and rotates the rest. The top business appeared in 87% of answers on average, but only 1.4 businesses per market were named in at least five of six answers.
- ChatGPT's citations went mostly to ranking sites and marketplaces such as Angi (78.5% of markets) and ContractorsRanked (71.8%), not to Google or Yelp.
- Google's AI works differently. A Cheers study of 34,742 home-services answers found Google's AI Mode cited Google properties 95.5% of the time, while ChatGPT cited Google 0.1% (Cheers).
So "AI search" isn't one thing. Google's AI answers lean on your Google profile; ChatGPT leans on directories and ranking sites. Both now appear above or alongside the usual results.
Two views from contractor marketers
Marketers disagree, and they sell different things:
- A lead-generation company argues that "ChatGPT is not replacing Google as a lead generation tool for home service contractors" and recommends Google Local Services Ads and Business Profile work (99 Calls). They sell those services.
- AI-visibility agencies argue that homeowners are shifting fast. They sell those services.
Neither side has independent data on booked jobs from AI. We couldn't find any.
A sensible plan
You don't have to pick a side. The work overlaps heavily:
- Keep Google strong. Your Google Business Profile, reviews and website still drive most local discovery. Keep the profile complete and reply to reviews.
- Fix your listings. Accurate profiles on Angi, BBB, Thumbtack, Yelp and Bing help regular searchers and the sources AI reads. See the directories ChatGPT reads.
- Keep reviews fresh. Customers filter on count and recency, and fresh reviews go with being named in studies. See how many reviews and how recent.
- Don't block the bots. Make sure your site allows ChatGPT's search crawler. See OAI-SearchBot.
- Check once a month. Ask the questions your customers ask and record the answers. See the five-minute test.
- Track where customers say they came from. Ask every new customer "How did you find us?" and write down the answer. After a few months you'll have your own data, which beats any survey.
What not to do
- Don't stop working on Google because of a headline.
- Don't buy a package that promises to put you at the top of ChatGPT. OpenAI says top placement can't be guaranteed, and no one outside OpenAI controls it.
- Don't ignore AI because the numbers are uncertain. Cheap, accurate listings and fresh reviews pay off either way.
FAQ
How many of my customers use ChatGPT to find me? Unknown for any one business. Ask customers how they found you and watch for the answer "ChatGPT" or "AI."
Is Google AI the same as ChatGPT? No. They use different sources. See does ChatGPT use Google reviews.
Should I wait until the data is clearer? The basics (accurate listings, reviews, a readable website) cost little and help now.
See where you stand today. Run a free scan at localpickai.com. You'll see whether ChatGPT names you, who it names instead, which websites it read, and what to fix first. Free, no signup, about a minute.
